Shops could open, but where will the customers come from? – Kevin Buckle

For all the eagerness there appears to be to see shops open again I have to say among the shop owners I know there is a fair amount of trepidation about what business will be like once they do open up.

Hairdressers of course need not worry and I’m sure they will see appointment waiting times reminiscent of supermarket delivery slots at the height of the panic. However it is hard to see, with so many people working from home for the foreseeable future and with visitor numbers being a tiny fraction of what Edinburgh is used to, where exactly it is thought customers, particularly for city centre shops, are going to come from.

All those folk still at home will undoubtedly continue to do most of their shopping online so there is the possibility of making up for lost high street sales with more online sales but they tend to favour the big players and there is of course no bigger player than Amazon.

It would be hoped that those local shops that have stayed open serving their communities are not forgotten by customers once they go back to facing more competition but for shops forced to close and only now considering reopening the worry is that even regular customers may not return.

While hairdressers may be in demand there has been little comment about the need for clothes shops to open, for instance, and truth be told at the same time as many people have realised that they could if necessary work from home forever others have also realised that there really is very little they need that they can’t find online, only confirming what many knew already.

Now unsurprisingly I can make a very strong case for why shops are still needed on the high street but it is very hard to see how many of the bigger players can possibly survive even if they see improved online sales.

One thing that will be particularly interesting is what shop opening hours will be. Those “experts” who have never actually had a shop are predicting longer hours so customers can be spread out during the day while those who actually own shops remember how desperately quiet mornings were before the pandemic and similarly how unsuccessful late-night opening has proved over the years, even at Christmas.

Of course another drawback to longer hours is that businesses are left with even higher wage bills and almost certainly lower takings. On the other hand the traditionally busiest time of late afternoon will be affected by the social distancing measures that again can only deter customers and reduce sales.

I’ve said more than once that some of the council’s plans to promote active travel would lead to people cycling past empty shops and again while there is no end to the efforts being made to cater for social distancing among cyclists, joggers and those simply out for a walk there seems to have been little thought given to businesses and I suspect people will be walking six feet apart by empty shops.

One business I know preparing in hope for the need for social distancing in the queue outside his shop said he had the perfect way to mark the space needed – his old A-boards!